Big Ten Breakdown Part 1

There is now basically only 4-5 games left for every Big Ten team, so we are going to take this time to look and see how everything is going and check to see how my predictions are holding up. This will be the first part of a 2 part series, as I am going to do a running diary of the OSU Purdue game.


1) Michigan State - 11-3 (previous record 9-0) (prediction 16-2)


I basically gave MSU the Durty kiss of death because as soon as I posted my predictions, MSU lost 3 straight. They were without Kalin Lucas in a loss to Illinois, and had him back without practicing at home against Purdue. The ankle injury to Lucas didn't lose the Wisconsin game, and realistically, it shouldn't have affected them as much in the Purdue game. I am guilty of giving them too much credit because their 9-0 start included 2 wins against Iowa, Northwestern, Minnesota, a road win against Michigan, and home wins against Illinois and Wisconsin. I am also guilty of not remembering my history which states that Tom Izzo teams are not great in February. So far this year in Feb, they are 2-3, in 2009 they were 5-2, in 2008 they were 3-4, in 2007 they were 4-3, and 2006 they were 3-4. February is by far MSU's worst month, I apologize for not realizing this.

Apparently February is not a good month for Raymar Morgan either. I'm not the only one who thinks he is an underachiever, as Tom Izzo called him out this week. In 5 games this month, he is averaging 7 points, 5 boards, and 1 assist a game. Durrell Summers is right their with him, averaging 7.5 a game, with 2.5 boards and 1 assist a game. Both of these upperclassman needed to pick up the slack with Lucas hurting, and they haven't. Also MSU has not been playing any defense what so ever lately, and collectively they are a bad 3 point shooting team. They are 19-64 in their last 5 games. Lucas is a decent outside shooter, and Chris Allen is a real good outside shooter, the rest of the team is garbage. Here is what they have left:


Ohio State
@ Purdue
Penn State
Michigan


The way they are playing right now, I will put them at 2-2 over those last 4 games. Nobody is playing better than Ohio State and Purdue right now. Purdue already crushed them at home, so what makes you think that they won't do it when MSU has to go on the road.


Final Record 13-5


Purdue - 9-3 (previous record 6-3) (Prediction 13-5)


I previously thought that Purdue would only lose 2 road games to MSU and OSU. Well they handled the hell out of MSU, but I still think that the Ohio State game will be a huge task for them. I think it will be a real close game tomorrow, but OSU just has a much better starting 5. Chris Kramer is going to annoy the shit out of Evan Turner, but he will still get his. Diebler, Buford, and Lighty are all really great shooters, and that will be too much for Purdue to overcome. JuJaun Johnson has been playing like a beast lately, and I think he will be able to get shots against the 1-3-1. Lew Jack gives them much needed help at the PG position, and Purdue is by far the deepest team in the Big Ten now. Moore and Hummel are very consistent. I think that Purdue is the best TEAM in the Big Ten, but that doesn't mean that they can overcome OSU who has the best 5 in the Big Ten. After the OSU game, Purdue doesn't have a lot of problems on the map that could really derail their season.


@ OSU
Illinois
@ Minnesota
MSU
Indiana
@ PSU


Now they have already beaten Illinois and Michigan State on the road, but at the same time, Illinois and MSU are 2 teams that can win anywhere. I think that Purdue will end up losing 2 games down the stretch because I find it very hard to believe that a team can go 12-1 at the end of the Big Ten schedule, especially with how talented yet disappointing some teams have been this year. Don't sleep on Penn State to end the season also, they can shock somebody. Purdue will finish 4-2 to end the season.


Final Record 13-5


Wisconsin - 9-4 (previous record 6-3) (prediction 12-6)


I know that everyone is all hot in their pants because Jon Leuer is coming back this week, but the guy hasn't played in over a month, and had a broken wrist, so color me skeptical. I really doubt that he will come back and shoot lights out like he had been before. It's not like he is a guard who just sits outside and shoots. He is inside banging for rebounds, and will get hacked a lot on his hand. Good luck with that. After going crazy for a few games, Keaton Nankivil has come back down to earth a little, averaging about 10 and 5 in his last 4 games. To be honest, I am not impressed with anyone that they have on offense. Even Trevon Hughes doesn't impress me. He doesn't dish the ball very well, and is only shooting 41% on the year. Wisconsin is exactly the same team that Illinois was last year with a little more depth on offense. They are bad on offense, but they make up for it by limiting possessions by the other team, and by playing amazing defense. Now that they are playing more road games, I still believe that they will have some bad losses down the stretch. Here is what they have left.


@ Minnesota
Northwestern
@ Indiana
Iowa
@ Illinois



The more I think about it, I think the Northwestern game might be a shock for Wisconsin. Northwestern did not turn the ball over against Wisco (only 6) but also did not shoot too many 3's. Northwestern led with 5 minutes left in that game before they choked, I can see them stealing the game at Wisco. I don't think they will win at Illinois at the end of the season. I think they will go 3-2 at the end.


Final Record 12-6


Ohio State - 10-3 (previous record 6-3) (prediction 13-5)

I am more excited for OSU vs. Purdue than any other game the rest of this season (except for any Illini game) Both teams are playing extremely well, but Evan Turner is so good that he can win games by himself. Only Talor Battle has shown that he can do that also. Turner can get to the rim whenever he wants, and really in the last 3 minutes of a tight game, he will just drive and score at will. The 1-3-1 zone they play really does a good job of keeping their starting 5 out of foul trouble, and also gives them a break on defense so they don't have to substitute as much. It is not a great defense because teams get a lot of open shots against it. They have to hope that they can stay out of foul trouble down the stretch. Dallas Lauderdale is really coming on lately, and I think that William Buford will be a leading candidate for Player of the Year next season when Evan Turner is not the first option. He has one of the best jump shots I have seen in basketball in a very long time. Everyone on this team is playing fantastic, you just have to hope that they didn't peak to early. There remaining schedule:

Purdue
@ Michigan State
@ PSU
Michigan
Illinois

The schedule is not easy by any stretch, but I see them going 4-1 down the stretch and winning the Big Ten. That is if they can play well on the road, which they really did at Illinois.

Final record: 14-4