Illini Basketball Preview

Many of you out there are anxiously awaiting the 2009-2010 Illini Basketball season like a 5 year old awaits Santa on Christmas morning. After watching the football team plod and plunder to a horrible 2-6 record, this season can't come soon enough.

Most people have anxiously waited for the arrival of Bruce Weber's best recruiting class yet at Illinois. We have all dreamed of what it would be like to have the athletes that other top tier programs have had the good fortune of seeing walk through their doors year after year. After waiting for 2 years, they are finally here. Brandon Paul, DJ Richardson, Joseph Bertrand and Tyler Griffey played their first game for the Illini last friday.

Like most of you, I thought that having these players would transform the Illini into a Big Ten contender overnight. Just like what happened in football, we all listened to how great these recruits were, and how well they have practiced in the off-season. Just like in football, we all drank the vodka laced Kool-aide, and got drunk off of the Illini recruiting hype machine. After watching them play (albeit one game) here is my honest opinion on how well they will hold up to an easy Non-conference schedule, and a brutal Big Ten conference season this year.

Right now I will breakdown the returning players for Illinios, after a couple games, we will look at the Freshman.

Centers

Mike Tisdale - Mike Tisdale made an enormous leap last year as far as productivity. The only player that was more surprising than Tisdale was Mike Davis. Tisdale averaged just over 10 points a game last season, but only 4 rebounds. We all now how many calories that Mike had to eat last season, and lets all collectively pray that we won't have to hear about it anymore. The problem is, is that Tisdale won't put on anymore weight. Based on his size and skill set, it is almost impossible to hope that he will make another giant leap this season. What we need to hope for is that his conditioning is better so that he can fight inside more for points and rebounds. McCamey caught a lot of flack last season for his inconsistant play, well Tisdale should have been right there with him. Tisdale was shut out twice last season, and scored less than 10 points 17 times!!! That cannot happen this season. Hopefully with an extra season to work on his post moves, he will be able to score inside more often, and also get to the free throw line where he is one of the better shooters on the Illini.

Richard Semrau- Semrau played pretty well in the non-conference last season coming off the bench. He gave the Illini what they lacked in Tisdale. Rich was able to body up bigger post players on defense, and also was pretty good at screening and rebounding. Even though he came into Illinois as a very good offensive player with a good mid-range shot, he has lost his confidence on the offensive end. Don't look for him to be a scoring threat, but with a team that will obviously be lacking on defense and on the glass, if he plays hard, he should get some productive minutes off the bench.

Stan Simpson - Stan is still a long way away from playing good minutes for the Illini. He is probably the most athletic out of the big men, but the motion offense that the Illini play is more conducive to post players who can shoot. Think of the difference between James Augustine, Captain Jack Ingram and Shaun Pruitt. In order to play, Simpson needs to be able to move and pass well. He could still become a great player for the Illini, but it probably won't be this season.

Forwards

Mike Davis - Mike Davis was the biggest surprise that the Illini have had since Warren Carter learned to shoot his senior season. His mid-range jumper is indefensible because of his athletic ability and the fact that he has a quick release from weird angles. Now that teams are aware of his ability from 10-18 feet, it is going to be harder for him to space to get his shot off. In the off-season he was working on his ball-handling, but that was side-tracked when he injured his leg. The biggest thing that the Illini need from Davis is offensive rebounds. With his athletic ability and skinny frame, he should be able to slide in and get some tip-ins this season. Although along with Tisdale, it all boils down to intensity inside with Davis. You can't expect him to shoot his jumpshot better than last season, but we need him to get more easy baskets.

Dominique Keller - In my eyes, Keller is probably the most important player for the Illini. He brings a level of intensity and aggresiveness that most of the other returning players don't have. Does he put up horrible shots? Absolutely, but he also does all of the little things on the floor. Keller is the spark off the bench that the Illini will need this season. He is going to fight for offensive rebounds, he is going to run the floor in transition, and he going to throw up playground junk that will somehow go in. Keller is the type of player that will get the crowd into the game with one crazy 3-pointer. Also, Keller understands that in order to play extensive minutes, he is going to have to defend and rebound. Make no mistake about it, even though he is a Junior College transfer and has only been in the system one year, Keller wants to be the leader of this team, and he wants to start. I think early in the season, Keller will probably play the best out of the Illini because he wants to earn his playing time.


Bill Cole - Many people have been calling for Cole to play more minutes since he first arrived at Illinois. If it weren't for an injury early in his Freshman year, Cole might have actually been in Mike Davis' place right now. Unfortulately for Cole, the make-up of the Illini does not bode well for his chances to become a standout player. Cole's biggest problems are his size and athleticism. Size wise, Cole would have to defend a power forward, yet he is not big enough to do that, nor can he rebound well because he lacks the jumping ability to make up for his skinny frame. He can't defend a 3, but this wouldn't be a major problem if he had other people on the team who help hide his lack of speed. There is just no way that he can play major minutes on this team without sacrificing scoring by the opposition. His offense will be welcomed off of the bench, but it will only happen in short spurts.

Guards

Demitri McCamey - McCamey has shown flashes his first 2 seasons of being another great guard in the Illini's long list of great guards. He and Bruce Weber have clashed so many times in the past that it seemed like he would probably fold instead of accepting the challenge and become an elite player. We this off season he lost weight, and has looked great. It has gone so far that Bruce is now praising his work ethic. Demitri is going to play a huge role in the Illini season this year, not because they will need him to score, but because he is the only real ball-handler coming back. McCamey will have to play more than 30 minutes a game this year, and in some games, many more minutes. Also he won't have luxury of taking plays off and allow Chester Frazier and Trent Meacham to handle the point. It is a blessing that he worked so hard in the off-season, because his conditioning needs to be amazing for him to play close to 40 minutes of basketball with little to no breaks. In the first game, he looked fantastic. Not only was he faster, but he did a much better job of letting the game come to him, and being patient. It will help him greatly to have so many scorers around him, but he will also need to penetrate more in order to himself some easy buckets.

Alex Legion - Legion is not a good ball handler, and really can't create shots for himself like the Freshman can. Legion's season will boil down to whether or not he can defend, and whether or not he can hit open jumpers when he gets them. Everyone has claimed that he is one of, if the not the hardest worker on the team. He probably practices his jumper more than anyone on the team, as it is said that he is the last one to leave the gym usually. The one bright spot to look at was the fact that his 3 best games last season came in road games at Purdue, Michigan and Michigan State. Look for Weber to be very patient with Legion because like it or not, he is going to have to play major minutes for this team because they are very thin at the guard spot. It will also help him to play in the non-conference this season because he will be able to carve out a niche for himself. If he shows that he can grasp the offense, and not be a liabilty on defense, he could have an unbelievable season. The Illini the past 3 seasons have lacked a spot up shooter. To see how well a catch and shoot player can be in this offense, all you have to do is look at how well Jamar Smith was his Freshman season. He average 8 points a game by strictly being a shooter, and with so many screens and movement in the motion offense, Legion will have open looks.

Jeff Jordan - Jordan chose the absolute worst time possible to take a 6 month break from basketball. In my opinion Jordan saw the talent that the Freshman class had a guard and decided that he would probably not play very much. Well if Jordan hadn't left, he would probably play at least 15-20 minutes a game early on, because the Illini desperatly need a guard who can defend and also handle the basketball. In my opinion, Jordan has just as much talent as Chester Frazier had. Now with a team that will obviously lack on the defensive end, they need Jordan more than ever. Taking time off will not help him at all, and instead of playing, look for Bruce to push the Freshman along even faster.

Now here is what you can expect from the Illini this season:



1) They will score much more than last season.
There are 3 reasons that the Illini will score more this season. First many of the teams in the Big Ten are guard heavy which should help out our post players scoring inside. Besides Minnesota, Illinois has the best front line in the conference. Next the freshman class will try to get to the hoop as much as possible, where as the last 2 seasons, we only had Chester Frazier, and he did not do it very well. Between Richardson, Paul and McCamey, you know have 3 guards who will look to penetrate. Finally to go along with attacking the basket, Illinois should shoot many more free throws than last season because all of the guards will look to attack. Also let's face it, Tisdale and Davis will get to the line much more. Now that they are upper-classmen, refs like Ed Hightower will give them the benefit of the doubt inside. Think about all of the times that Tisdale went up for a shot only to have it blocked. If you are 7 feet tall, a Junior or a Senior, and you go up relativly strong, Ed will bail you out. By the way, even though it was an exhibition game on Friday, Ed was in mid-season form. There were 52 fouls called during the game Friday night. Ed just wanted to make sure that we didn't forget about him during the off-season.

2) The Illini will be much worse on defense.
Bruce Weber is known as a defensive coach, so don't expect to see a horrible drop off from last season. Plain and simple, if you don't defend, then you don't play for Bruce Weber. The only problem is that for the first time in the Bruce Weber era, there is not a defensive stopper on this team. DJ Richardson will be a shut down defender eventually, but it is way to early to expect him to do it. The defense will have to rely heavily on the post players inside for help. Hopefully Tisdale and Davis can send back some shots this season, because a lot of guards will penetrate against us. The Big Ten is stacked with great guards this season, and in my opinion it is much harder to stop a good guard than it is to stop a good post player. Doubling a post player, or denying him the ball on the block is much easier than doubling a ball-handler or denying him the ball 30 feet away from the hoop. Don't be shocked when Evan Turner and Talor Battle drop 30 on us.

3) The Illini will try to press.
The beauty of having pretty much 10 players who can play significant minutes on this team is that it allows you the luxury of playing a pressure style defense. The Illini will not press much, but Mike Davis leading a 1-2-2 full court trap is a scary thing. It worked amazingly against Northwestern and Western Kentucky last season. I don't think you will see it unless Illinois is down late in a game this season, but it is something that they are capable of doing. Another thing to look for is Illinois using Davis or Keller to run and jump a guard bringing the ball up. They both have the athleticism to do it and then recover to their man.

4) The Illini will not play much zone.
Bruce said they might try it, and they will occasionally against mediocre teams that they will play in the non-conference, but it si much harder than people think to coach man to man, and then install a zone. If you can't play it effectivly, then there is no point in playing it. The thing that Weber hates most is uncontested shots, and that happens a ton in a poorly played zone. Also add to this the fact that it is much harder to rebound while playing a zone, and Illinois is not going to be a great rebounding team.

5) Illinois will terrible in a couple of games that they should easily handle.
There is no consistant player coming back for the Illini. McCamey, Tisdale, Davis, and Legion all have good games, and then also have terrible games. Unless they can all be consistant, Illinois will have some hiccups along the way. Another major problem is that there is only one true ball handler on this team. Look for teams that pressure a lot like Mizzou and Clemson to pose a ton of problems for the Illini. The Freshman guards will be a major factor in the success of this team because one of them will have to show that they can handle the ball without turning it over.

6) Illinois will run a lot more.
Chester Frazier tried to run at times, and so did Demitri. Trent Meacham was not a guard that could push the ball, but the new Freshman are very comfortable doing this. Also Illinois now has guards who are atheltic enough to finish. Tisdale is not great at running the floor, but Davis and Keller are. It helps a ton when you have fast post players that can beat opposing defenders down court.

7) Bruce will play a ton of people in the Non-conference, and then settle on a 8-9 man rotation.
Every year Bruce says that he will play more people, and then he settles on 8. This season he will be more patient early, but with a Big Ten conference that is so stacked at the top, he will not be willing to put up with mistakes when one loss can hurt your standings so much. These 7 people will play every game: McCamey, Davis, Tisdale, Keller, Legion, Richardson, and Paul. After that, Jordan, Cole, Semrau, Griffey, and Bertrand will pretty much fight it out for the next 2 spots. Don't be surprised if Cole and Semrau are the odd men out when the Big Ten season rolls around.

8) There will be some sort of adversity this season.
Last year, and the Final Four season, the Illini were blessed with little to no injuries or off the court problems (except for Chester's injury at the end of the season.) Cole and Semrau have been injured in the past, but that hasn't really mattered. If any one of the guards gets injured early, the Illini might be in trouble. In order to have a great season, you need to be really good, but you also have to be really lucky. Look at Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State and Purdue last season. Ohio State lost Lightey who is solid, Iowa lost damn near their entire team, MSU lost Raymar Morgan for a long stretch, and Purdue started 0-2 in the Big Ten because Robbie Hummel was hurt. OSU and Iowa did not have enough talent to overcome the injuries and have the season they had expected, where as Purdue and MSU did. Does Illinois have the talent do withstand an injury to McCamey, Davis or Tisdale? If any of them are out for an extended period of time, Illinois could be in a little bit of trouble.

9) Alex Legion will have a good season.
I'm not gonna go crazy and say that he will live up to his All-American status coming out of High School, but I do believe that Legion will surprise some people this year. In a system that allowed an average athelete like Trent Meacham shoot at least 3 wide open 3's a game, Legion should get plenty of good looks. Like Meacham, Legion is a streaky shooter, but unlike Meacham, Legion has the size and ability to shoot mid-range jumpers. If he gets hot, strap in and enjoy the ride because he will hit shots from all over the gym. Good shooters can't be kept under wraps for too long, and now that he has had basically 2 years of working the motion offense, Legion should now understand how to get open. Also it will help that McCamey has a great grasp of the offense and will know when and where Legion will be open.

10) Demitri McCamey will start at least 15 games with a three.
This was one of my favorite things about last season. It is so fun that it should be a prop bet in Vegas. In more games than not, Demitri took the first shot of the game and it was a 3. This didn't change on Friday as McCamey jacked up the first semi-open look he got. I actually love it, because McCamey is the one player that we need to have a good start. Think about how well he came out against Missouri last season. If Demetri can get going early, then every part of his game comes together. He defends okay, he looks for his teammates, and he attacks on every possesion. Also look for McCamey to be among the leaders in assists this year in the Big Ten. He looked so smooth on Friday, and he has more offensive weapons around him this season.

Well, there it is. After the game on Sunday I will post about what I saw from the Freshman, and maybe even do a running blog about the game. Enjoy the Minnesota game on Saturday, hopefully the Fighting Zookers can give us more than just one weekend of smiles!!