Weekly Pick'em

In the past, we at Durty Butter have posted a weekly pick'em weekly as the name of the post implies. Well you can chalk up another reason to hate Illinois football, it has taken the fun out of betting for me. Since I no longer like to wager on amateur football, it has made it difficult for me to choose games, but since I know you all love this, I am gonna give it another try. For the record, this is a horrible week to pick games. If you can find a line under 10 points, it is bound to be 2 teams you would be shocked to find out actually play football. If there is someone out there who knows enough about Louisiana Lafayette and Florida International to feel comfortable to bet on the 3 point spread, then they need a lot more help than me. I was about to say that they probably work for ESPN, but we all know that in order to work for them, all you need to know about is the Yankees, Red Sox, Lakers, Patriots, Brett Farve, Peyton Manning, Tim Tebow, and for some reason poker. Anyways, I have found some bets that seem logical.

Oregon +3 against USC

As soon as the Ducks lost to Boise State in the first game of the season and their running back LeGarrette Blount had a Vietnam flashback as he was leaving the field, everyone thought their season was over. Well now they are playing just about as well as anybody in the country. USC on the other hand has not. They have looked very average on offense and defense in wins over Notre Dame and Oregon State. Losing to Washington wasn't a shock, because that is what they always do. They also looked very average against Ohio State. Having a freshman QB and losing 42 first round draft picks on defense last year has left them a shell of team they usually are. Normally USC has more talent than anyone in the country, but instead of playing for a national championship, they shit the bed once against a terrible Pac-10 team, and then they beat the hell out of the best of the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. Well this year, they don't have the best talent in the country, and they won't play in the Rose Bowl for 6th time in 7 seasons, because Oregon will beat them.

Playing in Autzen stadium is horrible. I played terrible when I played there, and there was about 300 people there. It's going to be raining in that game, and that helps Oregon out a ton. I think it will be close, but Oregon pulls it out by a field goal, and then the students of U of O will storm the field and smoke weed, because that is what they do their instead of riot.

Michigan State -4 @ Minnesota

Minnesota used to have a really good passing game, but this season they have been below average. If you think Juice Williams has regressed, just look at Adam Weber. Last season he threw for over 2700 yards and had 15 touchdowns and only 8 picks. This season he has 1400 yards, and 6 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. Those are Jake Delhomme numbers. Playing outdoors all the time does not agree with him.

Added on to Weber being horrible is the fact that Eric Decker, their All World receiver is injured for the rest of the year. Minnesota won't know what to do. Early in the season, they couldn't run the ball at all, and they will have to try against MSU. This won't happen of course, because MSU has a decent defense against the run. Look for them to put a lot of pressure on Weber, and look for him to make a lot of mistakes. When you are having a horrible season, the last thing that you need is to lose the only player that you are comfortable throwing to. Michigan State has been very consistent pretty much all season, and I don't expect anything to change in this game.

California -7 at Arizona State

This is a tough game to pick because Cal can look very good when Jahvid Best gets going. He ran all over Minnesota, and is still the best NFL prospect at running back. Shockingly, their QB Kevin Riley has played very well at times. He has 11 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Surprise Surprise!! Their 2 worst games were against Oregon and USC. If you take out those 2 games, both of these players have been amazing all year. Arizona State is about as average as you can be, especially in their last 3 games. Beating Washington and Washington State by only 14 points is like going to an all you can eat buffet and sticking to the salad bar. These are 2 teams going in different directions. ASU has Cal, USC and Oregon in the next 3 games, they didn't do well enough agaisnt the cupcakes of the Pac-10 to instill a lot of confidence. I think Cal's offense keeps up their good play against crappy teams, and I think ASU won't be able to keep up.

Indiana +17.5 at Iowa

Iowa is the luckiest team of the 2009 season. They could very easily be 4-4 instead of 8-0. They have won their 4 home games by only 16 points. That might seem like a worthless stat, until you find out that those 4 games were against Northern Iowa, Arizona, Arkansas State, and Michigan. Everyone who likes the Big Ten needs to pray that they lose 2 games, because if they get into the Rose Bowl, or heaven forbid the National Championship game, the Big Ten will be an even bigger laughing stock than it already is. There is no way this team should be a 17.5 favorite against anyone. Indiana is a bad team, and giving up a 25 point lead to Northwestern might have crushed their dreams of a bowl game, but stranger things have happened (Purdue beating the hell out of Ohio State.) Not only do I think that Indiana will cover this spread, but they might actually win this game. The beauty of college football is that normally teams that are riding a ridiculous wave of luck usually have that luck run out. At best Iowa wins by 10, because they are not an offense that puts up a ton of points.

Illinois +8.5 at home against Michigan

I'm not going to try to rationalize this one. Illinois is probably the worst all around football team I have seen in a long time. Their defense is garbage, and I have never seen such a dumb team on offense in my life. If the QB's aren't throwing interceptions, then they are fumbling. If the offensive line is not letting the defense kill their QB or running backs, then they are holding. I'm to the point where I almost want them to kneel 3 times and then punt, then we can all prey that the returner muffs the punt. Unfortunately, Jeff Cumberland will try to jump up and catch the ball before the return man can get to it.

The only reason I am picking this is because no self-respecting Illinois fan can ever bet Michigan. Trust me, I am almost out of self respect after watching this team, but my hatred for Dick Rod and every "Michigan Man" I have ever met will not let me fold. I will be dressed from head to toe in Illini gear and cheering my ass of for one more week out of spite!! If Michigan destroys us, then I am done. I will wait for the mass exodus of players that will surely occur, and probably has already started. I will watch in horror as Notre Dame and Front Butt take all of our good recruits, and I will anxiously await our first basketball game.