Big Ten Breakdown

Now that we are about 1/4 of the way through the college basketball season, it is time to start breaking down Big Ten teams. I refrained from doing this before because their were too many variables to take into consideration. However, now that each team has played not only cupcakes, but also a few difficult games, it is much easier to tell how the Big Ten season will pan out. We will break down every team, except for Indiana because they are garbage, and I will also give you all of the players to watch for. Starting at the top:

1) Purdue

Easily the most balanced team in the Big Ten. Purdue has everything you want in a team. Starting with offense, they have a great scoring guard in E'Twaun Moore. Moore is capable of hitting 3's on the outside, and also penetrating and finishing at the hoop. He is listed at 6-4 which means his is 6-3 on a great day. If he were 2 inches taller he would be a lock for the NBA. Inside you have JaJuan Johnson, who can be an absolute beast when he wants to be, and then you have Robbie Hummel who can play both inside and out. The only thing that is keeping them from being one of the best offensive teams in the nation is the fact that Lewis Jackson is out all year, so they are lacking a true PG who can penetrate when he wants to.
On defense, not only do you have to put up with Chris Kramer constantly mugging you, but you also have to contend with his mom screaming at the top of her lungs only a few rows from the court. All and all Kramer and his mother are the toughest defensive duo to contend with in the Big Ten. Add to all of this a perfect Senior glue guy in Keaton Grant and a solid Freshman class that doesn't need to do anything outstanding for Purdue to win, and you have the best team in the Big Ten. Purdue is a very productive team that guards extremely well, and doesn't make too many mistakes.

2) Michigan State

Even though MSU has 2 losses already, they probably have the most talent at every position in the Big Ten. Don't let the early season losses to UNC and Florida fool you, this is the road map that Tom Izzo has used for over 14 years in East Lansing. He has 5 Final Fours, 1 runner-up and 1 National Championship. In all but one of those seasons, Michigan State lost at least 2 non-Big Ten games.

Last season they lost to Maryland and North Carolina to start the season 4-2.
2004 they lost to Duke and George Washington to start 3-2.
2000 they went undefeated in the non-conference
1999 they lost to Texas and Arizona to start 7-2
1998 they lost to Temple, Duke and UCONN to start 4-3

Izzo plays a brutal non-conference schedule early to break his team down, but the difference between Izzo and other coaches is that he knows how to get his team to learn from their losses. Look for MSU to roll through the rest of their non-conference and then be the toughest team during the Big Ten season, especially at home. Michigan State has a great group of veterans now with Raymar Morgan leading the way as a Senior. The real talent lies with the Junior class though. Kalin Lucas is the best point guard in the Big Ten, and with Chris Allen and Durrell Summers they have the best backcourt in not only the Big Ten, but maybe the nation. If Delvon Roe and Draymond Green play up to their potential in the front court, then MSU will be back in the Final Four.

3) Illinois

I had Ohio State here before Evan Turner broke his back, but now, Illinois gets the nod. Since I wax poetic about Illinois everyday on here, I will keep this short. Illinois has 6 juniors that have played decent minutes for him in the past, and the Freshman guards are playing out of their minds. If they learn how to play defense (which they will) they will be a really good team.

4) Wisconsin

The loss to Green Bay the other night was bad, but that was because of bad scheduling. Whenever you play an in state team on the road and you are the biggest program in that state, you are asking for trouble. That game was Green Bay's national championship. Beyond that, you should never be surprised that Bo Ryan has a good team when he doesn't have as much talent as other teams. Wisconsin always plays phenomenal defense and they have an enormous inside presence. To go along with Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil on the inside, you have 3 solid guards on the outside with Hughes, Bohannon, and Taylor. Travon Hughes has the talent to be a First Team All Big-Ten selection. He can not only shoot the ball, but he can handle it also when he needs to. The only problem with Wisconsin this season will be depth, beyond the starting 5 and really the first 7, you have absolutely nobody who has shown that they are dependable.

Wisconsin showed in the Duke game that they can not only force teams to play the way they want to, but with the 3 guards, they can also play up-tempo if need be. On top of that, the Kohl center is probably the hardest place to play in the Big Ten, which is probably a bigger factor than anything in Bo Ryan winning over 20 games a year every damn year. The 3 reasons that I think Wisconsin will finish 4th are:

1) The Kohl center: Last season they only lost 2 Big Ten games at home, which was abnormally high.
2) Travon Hughes and Jason Bohannon: If either of these guys get hot, you can pretty much forget about winning, they both can shoot lights out.
3) Tempo: Last season Wisco only gave up more than 70 points twice during Big Ten play. They will keep every game close.

5) Ohio State

Even with Evan Turner out for at least 2 months, Ohio State is still really talented. Basically now everyone else needs to pick up the slack, but Ohio State can do that. With Evan Turner, OSU is a top 3 team, but without, they still have the talent to be a top 5 team. Here is what needs to happen for the Buckeyes to stay competitive.

1) They need to run an offense: Evan Turner was a rare talent that allowed everyone else to sit around and watch. More importantly, in close games, OSU could just run pick and roll at the top of the key with Turner and anybody. Now that he is out, OSU will need to run a solid offense that gets shots for Buford and Diebler, and also get the ball inside to Lauderdale.

2) They need to live up to their hype: Diebler scored more points than anyone in Ohio high school history, and that includes LeBron James. Bufford was considered a one and done player coming in to college. Somehow Thad Matta of all people has recruited some of the best players in high school to come to OSU, it is about time he did something with them.

3) They need to play some defense: OSU never plays defense, it is a known fact. They have no real home court advantage to speak of, and they are one of the only Big Ten teams that play zone almost exclusively. If they want to weather the storm that they will face early on in the Big Ten, it will have to happen on defense first.

OSU probably will not finish 5th because they will get killed early on in the Big Ten without Turner. 4 of their first 5 Big Ten games are on the road. But if they can somehow come out of that with a 3-2 record, they will be fine by the end of the season.

6) Minnesota

Minnesota is scary deep, but that might not be the best thing. 9 players average over 5 points a game, but only 2 average more than 10. If the fighting Tubby's can be cut down to a solid 8 man rotation, then I think they can be extremely good, however I think based on their depth, nobody has really progressed from last season. Pretty much everyone else on the top of the Big Ten has 3 go to players, but Minnesota really only has one in Lawrence Westbrook. Al Nolen has been doing a decent job at distributing with almost 5 assists a game, but beyond that, nothing stands out at you. This season, Minnesota should have had one of the better front courts in the country. Sampson, Iverson, Johnson and Carter all played a ton of minutes last season, and at least 2 of them should have gotten better, but so far it seems like they digressed. They also added another forward in Rodney Williams who has been starting, yet they still are bad up front.

In their 3 losses, here are the shooting stats of their 5 post players.

Portland: 9-24
Texas A&M: 15-33
Miami: 8-22

In those games, the team only shot above 40% once. There is no way you can win games when your team revolves around your post players, and they are shooting well below 50%. In their best game of the season against #10 Butler, the post players shot 14-22. I am placing Minnesota here because I think Tubby can get this figured out, but if they continue to play like they have been, then Minny is NIT bound.

7) Northwestern

I think this might be the year. The geeks have only lost to #20 Butler and have beaten NC State. They should finish out the non-conference schedule without another loss, as long as they get by Stanford. Bill Carmody actually has athletes on this team. By athletes, I mean by Northwestern standards (these guys didn't play basketball so they had extra-curricular activities on their Ivy league transcripts). I will always contend that Carmody plays a gimmick offense, but it works for the Big Ten because when you don't have the talent to compete playing real basketball, you have to be tricky. The beauty of playing a 4 corners, back cutting Princeton offense is that people only see it once. Everyone else in basketball runs a form of motion, or high-low, so defenses are used to seeing it, but when you only have 3 days to prepare for Carmody's offense, you are bound to give up points. The problem that Northwestern will run into during the Big Ten season is that pretty much every team except for the shitty ones are lead by Juniors, so they have all seen Northwestern's gimmicks before.
As always, depth will end up plaguing this team. They really only go 7 deep, and that won't last during a brutal Big Ten season. It also hurts that pretty much every home game they have ends up being a neutral court game because Northwestern has the worst sports fans in college. This season really hinges on whether or not John Shurna and Michael (Fake Juice) Thompson can continue to get better. I really doubt that they can keep up their play, hence the reason they are not higher. If they had Kevin Coble and Jeremy Nash, then they would absolutely be in the the Top 5-6 of the Big Ten. On the bright side for Northwestern, they aren't the pushover that they used to be in the Big Ten.

8) Michigan

I know a lot of you will think that this is way too low for Michigan, but I am sorry, they are garbage!!! I have argued for 2 years now that John Beilein is a terrible coach, and his offense is bullshit. Last year he proved me right and this year he is doing an even better job. Guess what? On any other team in the Big Ten, Manny Harris and Deshawn Simms could be first round draft picks. What does Evan Turner have that Manny Harris doesn't? What does JuJaun Johnson have that Deshawn Simms doesn't?? The answer is an offense that tries to exploit their talents!!!! I will never understand why Michigan doesn't ever run a pick and roll with these 2? You want proof as to why I think John Beilein's offense is fucking terrible? Look at the 4 losses:

Marquette:
25-55 from the field
3-20 from 3

Alabama:
22-57 from the field
6-25 from 3

Boston College:
21-65 from the field
9-34 from 3

Utah:
17-50
7-22 from 3

In the 4 losses, that is a collective 25-101 from 3 point range!!!! Are you fucking kidding me?? On the season Michigan is shooting 29% from 3, yet they have been allowed to shoot over 205 of them in only 8 games. Imagine what is going to happen when they actually play teams that defend well. You want an even larger indictment on why John Beilien is a terrible coach? Look at DeShawn Simms' numbers in those losses:

Marquette: 3-10 FGs - 0-2 3's
Alabama: 6-14 FGs - 1-4 3's
Boston College: 2-7 FGs - 0-2 3's
Utah: 4-12 FGs - 2-7 3's

Why is a 6-8 235 Ilbs. beast shooting so many 3's? If you are a post player who averages 30% from 3 for your career, you should never shoot them! Yet Beilein lets him shoot 7 in a game? Are you kidding me? If your gameplan revolves around your blind hope that one of the best interior athletes in the Big Ten gets hot from 3 point range, you need to not only be fired, you should not be allowed to coach basketball on any level ever!!!!

The reason that Michigan started the season out ranked in the top 15 was because of the talent, and the reason that they are 4-4 right now is because of the god damn coach. The beauty of Beilein is that he will win games that he has no business winning because his offense has you shooting 300 3's a game, so if you get hot, no team can keep up. You might win 2 games like this, but the problem that you have is that the other 30 games you play, you will shoot average if not worse and lose. Anybody has a shot at beating Michigan based on their offense, hence the reason that they lost to Marquette, Alabama, Boston College and Utah. None of those teams will make the NCAA tournament, and unless Michigan goes 14-4 in the Big Ten, neither will they.

Michigan also has to play Kansas and UConn. I promise you that at least one of these game will be close, but for the love of god don't bet them because Michigan can have a fluke shooting night and cover the spread. Either way, Michigan will finish their non-conference with a 6-6 record, Manny Harris and DeShawn Simms will be gone next year, and Michigan will be fighting Iowa for the worst Big Ten basketball team.

9) Penn State

Penn State begins with Talor Battle. Unfortunately, it also ends with Talor Battle. I promise you that Talor Battle will lead the Big Ten in scoring this year, not because he is the best player, but because every team will let him get his as long as nobody else on the team does anything. Here is the rundown on Penn State:

1) Battle averages 17 points a game, nobody else averages over 10: Battle is the only offensive weapon, however he is shooting less than 40% on the year. He is trying to do everything by himself, which doesn't bode well for him when he gets into a defensive minded conference schedule.

2) They haven't played anybody: So far their best win is at a 4-4 Virginia team. They also have losses to UNC Willmington, Tulane and Temple. The Temple loss probably won't be as bad as it looks now, but their non-conference schedule was by far the easiest of the Big Ten teams and they did not do well.

3) They have no post players: Their 2 main post players are David Jackson and Andrew Jones, and between them, they average 14 points and 10 rebounds a game.

The last 2 seasons, Penn State had a very large inside presence, but that is lacking this season, so teams will play much tighter on the outside, and Talor Battle will see a lot more attention than he has seen in his first 2 years. He will get his points because he will shoot, but post players will have no problem leaving their man to help because their is no major threat to score by their man.

10) Indiana

They are terrible, and people can talk all they want about how young they are, and Creen is recruiting well, but so is MSU, OSU, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisco is always good, so I don't see them doing anything for a long time. Sure they beat Pitt, but Pitt is not a very good team. They haven't beat anyone, and they will get crushed in the Big East this season. Indiana will lose by 25-30 against Kentucky tomorrow, and I will watch every second of it!! Indiana will not finish above .500 this season and not make the post season for the second straight year. I hope Eric Gordon and your first round flame out was worth it you pretentious pieces of shit!!!!

11) Iowa

They only thing that Iowa has going for them is that they won't be as bad as last seasons Indiana team..... maybe. I really doubt that Iowa wins a Big Ten game this season, although they have a couple of players that could put together 40 good minutes one time this season. If you can, never watch them play because they are just awful.