So I was expecting Auburn's offense to finally come around, apparently I have more patience than Auburn Head Coach Tommy Tuberville who fired his offensive coordinator this week. Obviously I wasn't the only person losing money because Auburn couldn't cover a spread... or run one. On a side note, if you knew nothing about college football and I showed you the 2 pictures above, which one would you think is Tommy Tuberville?
Exactly, the guy with the front butt.
While watching the Illini-Michigan game, I thought that either Rich Rod's head was going to explode, or his pants were going to get soiled based on his facial expressions. I have always hated Michigan, but he has taken my hatred to another level. I am waiting for defenses to catch up to spread offenses and "The guru of the spread" to become obsolete. This will happen in the next 3-4 years as schools recruit faster, yet undersized LB's and DE's who have more lateral speed than normal. This always occurs, in the 80's you had more of a power I, and triple option offenses, then the 90's brought pro style offenses, and then that morphed into more of a single back with 3-4 WR sets, and now the spread with dual threat QB's. I feel that things will move back to a more smash-mouth style, or maybe the A-11.
So for the Season Durty Butter is 8-7, which I chalk up to a horrible week of upsets 2 weeks ago. Without that week, we are 7-3. Take out Auburn and we are 7-1.
The picks for this week are:
Illini (-13) vs. Minnesota - If Minnesota weren't 5-1 then I would probably take them and the points in this game, which I know this is crazy logic, but let me explain. Minnesota sucks! They have a decent QB and a great WR and that is it. Their 5 wins have been against JV opponents. They have beaten Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Montana State, Florida Atlantic, and Indiana, and only one of those games was on the road. They lost to Ohio State by 13, but were down 34-6 with 10 minutes left(screwed me on the spread), it was Pryor's second game as a starter and Wells' first game in a month. However, since Minnesota is 5-1 and could become bowl eligible with a win, the Illini probably are giving them more credit than they deserve. It could have been a game that Illinios overlooked and came out and gone through the motions. It's homecoming, you just beat Michigan at the Big House, but look for the Illini to keep the momentum going. Also look for the secondary to get some turnovers. This is the challenge that Vontae has been looking for to make him a legit first-round pick, and the safety situation is finally figured out. Donsay will have an amazing hit in this game.
The logic that Minnesota will come out fired up because Tim Brewster is pissed at Illinios for being passed up for the Head Coaching job and want revenge is stupid. Do you really think that players are thinking "We need to win this for coach because we were his second choice!"?
Michigan State (-1.5) @ Northwestern - Javon Ringer is a stud, he is 12 yards short of 1000 in 6 games, and Brian Hoyer is actually completing passes. The defense didn't stop Stephon Green last week against Iowa, but they did keep him out of the end zone. This will be a good gauge as to how good MSU's defense is, because 5 of the next 6 games are against spread offenses. Northwestern, just like Minnesota hasn't beaten a decent team unless you are talking about Basketball programs. Northwestern has had a week off, but I can't imagine them going 6-0, it's probably because I didn't get into school there and I am still bitter! Plus playing at Ryan Field isn't exactly a home field advantage, and doesn't deserve the points that you get against the spread when you are home.
LSU (+6) @ Florida - This pick is based on one things. Percy Harvin is not healthy. If he doesn't play, then I think that LSU wins this game, but even if he does play, he is not going to be 100% and that changes the entire scheme for Florida's offense. He is the leading receiver and 2nd leading rusher for an offense that has not played the way people thought. LSU's defense isn't as good as it has been in the past, but with Florida's problems, expect a close game in the 20's
Colorado (+14) @ Kansas - Kansas is not the same team they were a year ago. They lost to USF and barely squeaked out a win at Iowa State last week. They also are playing Oklahoma and Texas Tech in the next 2 weeks, so they might not come out and play well enough to win by more than 2 touchdowns, because they have been giving up points this year. Colorado is a young offense that was playing very well until they ran into Florida State and Texas. I expect them to play well but still lose, just not by alot. Plus my cousin goes to Colorado, so I will like them until the Illini play them in a Bowl game or the NCAA Tournament, at which point we will sever all ties.
Penn State (-6) @ Wisconsin - Wisconsin is one dimensional offense, and Penn State has a great front 4 now that all of their players are out of county lock-up. They do have a good defense, but they gave up yards to Steven Threet and Tyrel Pryor who are both duel threat QBs. Penn State's offense is much better than both Michigan and Ohio State, because they have great players at all of the skill positions. If Wisconsin does not start throwing the ball better look for them to get blown out in this game. The only thing that scares me with this pick is that it is very hard to believe that Wisconsin will lose 3 games in a row, and Camp Randall is a terrible place to play for a road team.
As always some of these games are a little too close to really call, so tease them. Illini -7, MSU +5.5, LSU +12, Colorado +20, Penn State pick'em. For the record Auburn is a 17 point favorite against Arkansas, so since I didn't pick them this week, they will cover.
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